Nordic Sustainability Briefing — 26 July 2026
Today's digest covers a rapidly intensifying El Niño raising record-heat odds for 2026, the EU's provisional 2040 climate target, an open consultation on the post-2030 climate framework, and a forthcoming Circular Economy Act framed as a competitiveness tool. Practical notes for smaller firms include VSME digital reporting tools and the graduation of an open-source carbon-aware software project.
Rapidly developing El Niño raises the chance of a record-warm 2026
One of the most rapidly intensifying El Niño events in the modern record is taking shape in the tropical Pacific, boosting temperature expectations for this year and next. Carbon Brief now puts the chance of 2026 setting a new global temperature record at 35%, up from 19% in April, with the shift driven almost entirely by stronger El Niño forecasts.
Western Europe recorded its hottest June on record
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, June 2026 was Western Europe's warmest June on record, averaging 20.74°C — 3.05°C above the 1991–2020 average and surpassing the record set in June 2025. Globally it was the second-warmest June, at 1.39°C above pre-industrial levels, with an intense late-month heatwave breaking daily and some all-time records across several countries.
Council and Parliament agree provisional 2040 climate target of a 90% cut
EU co-legislators reached a provisional agreement to amend the European Climate Law with a binding 2040 target of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% versus 1990 levels. The deal includes flexibilities, such as a role for high-quality international carbon credits toward the target from 2036, and is positioned as a step toward climate neutrality by 2050.
Commission opens consultations on the EU's post-2030 climate framework
The Commission has launched public consultations to shape climate rules after 2030, focusing on the role of national targets, flexibilities, and the possible use of international credits, since national targets under the Effort Sharing and LULUCF regulations expire in 2030. The consultations remain open until 4 May 2026 and will feed legislative proposals due in the last quarter of 2026.
Circular Economy Act, due in Q3 2026, reframed as a competitiveness instrument
The upcoming Circular Economy Act, expected from the Commission in the third quarter of 2026, is set to be a central pillar of the Clean Industrial Deal, positioned as a competitiveness instrument rather than as environmental policy alone. Among its aims is doubling the EU's circular material use rate to 24% by 2030 and creating a unified single market for secondary raw materials.